Fantasy baseball managers can be so predictable this time of year.
Open a discussion about drafting veterans such as Nick Castellanos or Teoscar Hernandez and you get a dissertation on ADP data and why you have to be careful with talent declining with age.
But ask about reaching for rookies like Wyatt Langford or Jackson Merrill, and eyes glaze over, much like when you jingle a set of keys in front of a baby. The Kool-Aid smile is often accentuated by a tiny stream of drool.
Rookies are all the rage, and the outfield position is loaded with them. The question is, how far should you go to acquire them?
Langford and Merrill are already center stage for fantasy managers, as is rookie Brewers center fielder Jackson Chourio. All three will be on the field for Opening Day, and the hype throughout the spring has been relentless.
It is difficult to argue against them — Langford leads all of MLB with a 1.242 OPS this spring, Merrill just got the starts in center field for the Padres during the Seoul Series, and Chourio is batting .280 with a .333 OBP through 15 spring games. We expect all three to find success at the major league level, but the question you always have to ask yourself on draft day is whether the juice is worth the squeeze.
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The biggest problems we have with rookie hype is how far people reach to draft the player. There is no doubting Langford’s talent, but over the past three weeks, his ADP has jumped over 50 spots, and he is now being drafted inside the top 100. If he plays at his ceiling, like Corbin Carroll did last year, then you’re getting strong return value, but if he goes the route of so many other MLB rookies over the years, then you are paying too much.
Chourio is of similar ilk in that he is also climbing up the ADP ranks with news of him earning the starting job. After hitting 22 home runs stealing 44 bases in 2023, the expectations are high, and though he is still about 20 picks behind Langford, we run a similar risk of overpaying. Rookies can be amazing during the spring, but they can also get overwhelmed once the regular season begins.
Merill’s ADP has been the most reasonable of the three, coming in as a 25th-round pick in 12-team leagues. Neverthless, be careful in late drafts as his most recent 2-for-5 with a double and two runs in Seoul are fresh in everyone’s minds right now. We could see some overdrafting as early as this weekend.
It is OK to be enthusiastic about the rookie outfielders this season, but try to be sensible during your drafts. Reaching by a round or two is one thing, but you never want to overcommit. And if you miss out on these three in your draft, don’t overpay for them in a trade. Stay sensible and simply add Colton Cowser and James Wood for cheap on waivers. Both should be up sooner than later, and each will put that same Kool-Aid smile on your face.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.